what history actually did

The average return said this plan works. History said it fails almost half the time.

Retire at 50 on a 5% real return and the plan ends with $2.1M. Run it through every start year since 1871 and 49 of 106 run out. Same plan. One chart lies.

You asked for the link. The planner every chart came from is one tap away; the slides are below if you want them again.

Open the planner Type in one paycheck. About three minutes, in the browser.

Slide 1 of 6: The average return said this plan works. History said it fails almost half the time.

Slide 2 of 6: On a steady 5% real return, it works.

Slide 3 of 6: Through every start year since 1871, 49 of 106 run out.

Slide 4 of 6: Three settings, three survival rates.

Slide 5 of 6: An average return is a single number standing in for a hundred different futures.

Slide 6 of 6: Save this for the next time a calculator shows you one line.

Where to go next

Retire Plan

Type in one paycheck and it runs your plan through every year of market history since 1871, with the taxes worked out. About three minutes, in the browser.

Open it

Sources: Expected path at 5% real return, 2.5% inflation, 2026 dollars. Plan: age 40, $250,000 salary, $1.2M saved, retiring at 50.; Shiller monthly series 1871-2026, 106 start years. Backtest survival 53.8%; Monte Carlo 68.7%.; Engine output. Each row changes one setting from the plan above..

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