what history actually did

Stop saving at 40, take a job that covers the bills, and this plan fully retires at 50.

That is Coast FIRE. From 40 the pay covers all $48,000 of spending, nothing goes in or comes out, and the savings grow into the target on their own.

You asked for the link. The planner every chart came from is one tap away; the slides are below if you want them again.

Open the planner Type in one paycheck. About three minutes, in the browser.

Slide 1 of 7: Stop saving at 40, take a job that covers the bills, and this plan fully retires at 50.

Slide 2 of 7: From 40 to 50 nothing goes in and nothing comes out.

Slide 3 of 7: Coast FIRE from 40, against retiring once the savings reach the target.

Slide 4 of 7: The Coast FIRE version never ran out in any of the 91 cases since 1871.

Slide 5 of 7: The pay covers the spending, so the savings only have to grow.

Slide 6 of 7: Health insurance before 65 is not in these numbers.

Slide 7 of 7: Save this for the year the savings start to look big enough.

Where to go next

Retire Plan

Type in one paycheck and it runs your plan through every year of market history since 1871, with the taxes worked out. About three minutes, in the browser.

Open it

Sources: The coast plan: age 30, $100,000 salary, 15% into a 401K with a 5% match, $160,000 saved, $48,000 a year of spending, Colorado, 5% real return, 2026 dollars.; Quick check solver for the ages at a 4% withdrawal rate; full plan backtest since 1871 for the cases. The coast plan: age 30, $100,000 salary, 15% into a 401K with a 5% match, $160,000 saved, $48,000 a year of spending, Colorado, 5% real return, 2026 dollars.; Shiller monthly series 1871-2026. The coast plan: age 30, $100,000 salary, 15% into a 401K with a 5% match, $160,000 saved, $48,000 a year of spending, Colorado, 5% real return, 2026 dollars..

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