what history actually did

Retire in 1966 with $1M and the 4% rule, and the money was gone by 74.

Retire nine years later, in 1975, with the same $1M and the same rule, and you died with $3.95M. Same plan. Different decade.

You asked for the link. The planner every chart came from is one tap away; the slides are below if you want them again.

Open the planner Type in one paycheck. About three minutes, in the browser.

Slide 1 of 6: Retire in 1966 with $1M and the 4% rule, and the money was gone by 74.

Slide 2 of 6: Four start years out of 126 ran out. 1966 is one of them.

Slide 3 of 6: Same $1M, same rule, nine years apart.

Slide 4 of 6: The first ten years decide it, and you do not choose them.

Slide 5 of 6: It can feel like there is nothing to do about it, and there is.

Slide 6 of 6: Save this for the day someone says 4% is always safe.

Where to go next

Retire Plan

Type in one paycheck and it runs your plan through every year of market history since 1871, with the taxes worked out. About three minutes, in the browser.

Open it

Sources: Shiller monthly series 1871-2026. Bengen 1994 setup. No tax, no Social Security.; Engine output, balances in the dollars of the start year. Withdrawals rise with the CPI of each window's own years..

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