what history actually did
This plan retires at 70 with $1.62M, spends $80,000 a year, and still peaks at $1.67M around 85. Growth on the part you have not spent yet outruns the spending.
You asked for the link. It is below: the slides from the post, the move if there is one, and the planner the chart came from.
Where to go next
Type in one paycheck and it runs your plan through every year of market history since 1871, with the taxes worked out. About three minutes, in the browser.
Open itSources: Expected path at 7% return and 3% inflation. Plan: age 65, $1.2M saved, retiring at 70 on $80,000 a year with $2,400 a month of Social Security.; Engine output, expected path. 7% is an assumption, not a forecast..